Forage Planning in a Drought Year: A National Picture, and What Northern Growers Should Be Watching

The forage story in 2026 is no longer a regional one.

Pastures have already burned out across the southern Plains and west Texas. Wheat condition ratings continue to drop. But the harder data is coming out of the West. Federal forecasters now project April-through-July inflows into Lake Powell at roughly 13 percent of average — the lowest since the reservoir was built in 1963 — after the Rocky Mountain states recorded their lowest snowpacks on record. As of early April, drought conditions were affecting an estimated 46 percent of all U.S. alfalfa acreage, with some western states above 60 percent.

California, Arizona, the Pacific Northwest, the Intermountain West, and the southern Plains are all carrying meaningful drought stress at once. That combination is what makes 2026 different from a typical regional dry year.

In this post, we are stepping back from the genetics conversation to look at what a multi-region drought means for forage supply, what northern growers should be watching, and how stand decisions made now can absorb pressure that may show up later in the year.

The Forage Market Is a National Market

When pastures fail in one part of the country, demand does not disappear. It moves.

That movement shows up in a few predictable ways:

Hay prices firm up earlier in the season than usual. Forage buyers from drought regions begin sourcing further from home. Inventory that would normally carry a northern operation through winter starts looking more attractive to outside buyers. And by late summer, the conversation among neighbors often shifts from “how is your second cutting” to “how much hay do you have left.”

In a typical year, that pressure comes from one direction. In 2026, it is coming from several at once. The southern Plains are pulling hay north and east out of necessity. Western dairies and feedlots — already operating with reduced irrigation allocations and lower in-state production — are sourcing further afield. Export demand for western alfalfa has rebounded after the 2025 tariff disruption, which removes another release valve for inventory that might otherwise stay in the domestic market.

None of this is unusual in pattern. It is the breadth that is unusual. And growers who recognize the pattern early have more options than growers who see it in October.

Why the Western Picture Matters to a Midwest Dairy

It is fair to ask why a Wisconsin or Minnesota operation should care about Lake Powell or the California Central Valley.

The answer is supply substitution.

California is the country’s largest alfalfa producer. The Pacific Northwest produces the bulk of premium-grade hay sold into export markets. When water allocations get cut in those regions — and they are being cut — production drops, fallowed acres expand, and the buyers who normally rely on western hay start looking elsewhere. That “elsewhere” is increasingly the Upper Midwest.

There is precedent. The 2021–2022 western drought drove U.S. hay inventories to the lowest level recorded since 1954. California alone fallowed alfalfa acres rather than carry the water cost of producing them. Prices firmed nationally, even in regions that had adequate moisture.

A multi-region drought in 2026 has the potential to repeat that pattern, with one important difference: the Rocky Mountain snowpack situation is structural, not just seasonal. Reservoir storage across the Colorado River system is at roughly 36 percent of capacity. That does not rebuild in a single wet year.

What to Watch Through the Summer

A few indicators are worth keeping an eye on between now and August:

Drought monitor expansion. The U.S. Drought Monitor updates weekly. Watch the western states and the southern Plains together — when both expand into D2 and D3 categories simultaneously, forage demand pressure builds across multiple regions at once.

Western water allocations. Irrigation cutbacks in California, Arizona, and the Pacific Northwest are a leading indicator of fallowed alfalfa acres later in the season. Acres that come out of production this year do not come back quickly.

Wheat grazing reports. In normal years, southern wheat carries cattle through spring. When wheat fails, those cattle need somewhere else to go, and that pressure ripples into the hay market.

Cool-season forage demand. Triticale, rye, and other cool-season options often see increased buying interest from drought-affected operations looking to establish fall forage. That demand can affect seed availability and pricing.

Local cutting yields. Conditions in your own fields are still the most important data point. A short first cutting locally, combined with strong outside demand pulling hay west and south, is the combination that compresses inventory fastest.

Stand Decisions Made Now Carry Through the Year

Forage planning is not a single decision. It is a series of decisions made across the year that compound.

In a year where multiple regions are already under drought pressure, three considerations matter more than usual:

Stand persistence. Established alfalfa stands that hold their density through a stress year are worth more than they were last year. Replanting is expensive. A stand that delivers a strong third or fourth year reduces exposure when forage is tight nationally.

Cutting management. Aggressive cutting schedules pay off in tonnage during good years. In stress years, they can shorten stand life and increase replant frequency. Adjusting cutting intervals based on plant stress is one of the cheapest forms of forage insurance available.

Forage diversification. Operations that lean entirely on a single forage source carry more risk in a drought year. Cool-season annuals, cover crops with forage value, and mixed stands all provide flexibility when conditions get tight.

None of this is new agronomic thinking. It is just worth revisiting when the broader forage picture is shifting on multiple fronts.

Why Genetics Show Their Value in Stress Years

In an average year, most alfalfa stands look reasonably similar. Adequate establishment. Predictable cuttings. Steady regrowth.

Stress years tell a different story.

Stand density holds, or it does not. Recovery after cutting is consistent, or it is not. Year three yields stay competitive, or they fall off.

Genetics developed and tested under meaningful environmental pressure tend to demonstrate their value most clearly when conditions get hard. That is not a marketing claim. It is what shows up in multi-year data.

Growers who selected genetics with persistence and stress response in mind a few years ago are in a stronger position this summer than growers who selected on first-year yield alone.

Grower Question to Ask

If forage gets tight nationally this year, where does my operation have flexibility?

A useful answer should include:

How many years of stand life remain in current alfalfa fields. Whether cool-season forage options fit into the rotation. What hay inventory looks like heading into fall, and whether outside buyers are already in the market locally. Which stands are most at risk if cutting management has to be adjusted.

Knowing the answer before forage prices move provides more options than learning the answer after.

The Bottom Line

Drought conditions across the western U.S. and southern Plains do not create immediate pressure on northern forage supplies. But they shift the broader market in ways that tend to show up in the second half of the year, and the breadth of this year’s drought footprint suggests that pressure may be more sustained than in a typical regional dry year.

Watching the indicators, evaluating stand decisions with persistence in mind, and keeping flexibility in the rotation are the practical responses available to growers right now.

Forage markets are cyclical. Drought years come and go. But the operations that come through them with the least disruption are the ones that planned a season ahead, not a month behind.

At Legacy Seeds, we believe the strongest forage decisions are made before the pressure arrives. Disciplined stand management, durable genetics, and a clear-eyed view of the broader market give growers the flexibility to respond to whatever the season delivers.

June 2026